Azerbaijan’s strategic pivot.

From Pakistan ally to India engagement.

For decades, Azerbaijan positioned itself as a staunch supporter of Pakistan, often echoing Islamabad’s stance on Kashmir and openly criticising India’s policies. It even permitted Kashmir Day events and conferences sympathetic to Khalistani causes. Yet, recent developments suggest a notable recalibration in Baku’s foreign policy, with India now emerging as a potential partner rather than an adversary.

Signs of a Reset

The turning point came earlier this year during the 6th round of Foreign Office Consultations in Baku, the first such dialogue since 2022. Indian and Azerbaijani officials discussed trade, technology, tourism, energy, and security. The inclusion of “cross‑border terrorism” in the agenda was significant- while India associates the term with Pakistan, Azerbaijan could link it to Armenia or Iran. This shared language hinted at a subtle alignment of interests.

Why the Change?

Several factors underpin Azerbaijan’s shift:

• Economic Imperatives: India is Azerbaijan’s third‑largest crude oil market, with ONGC Videsh holding stakes in key oil fields and pipelines. Bilateral trade reached USD 1.435 billion in 2023, though it was heavily skewed toward Azerbaijani exports.
• Tourism Decline: Indian tourist arrivals, vital for Azerbaijan’s economy, dropped by nearly 30% after Operation Sindoor, prompting concern in Baku.
• Security Calculations: India’s arms exports to Armenia including Pinaka rocket launchers and Akash air defence systems raised alarms in Azerbaijan. Resetting ties could reduce the risk of Indian military support to its rival.
• Regional Shifts: As Armenia and Turkey move towards normalisation, Azerbaijan faces potential isolation. Strains with Ankara, once its closest ally, are growing due to Turkey’s religiously driven policies and tensions with Israel, a key Azerbaijani partner.

India’s Strategic Opportunity

For New Delhi, Azerbaijan offers multiple advantages:

• A reliable energy partner in Eurasia.
• A role in the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), crucial for connectivity.
• A chance to counterbalance Turkey’s influence, which increasingly challenges India’s interests.

Proceeding with Caution

The Modi-Aliyev meeting at the SCO summit in Bishkek symbolises this new chapter. Yet, India must remain vigilant. Azerbaijan’s past hostility and opportunistic shifts suggest its rapprochement may be driven more by necessity than genuine goodwill. While the reset opens doors for cooperation, Delhi should engage pragmatically, ensuring that strategic gains outweigh potential risks.