Trump’s stop-start Iran strategy: Ceasefires announced, strikes resume.

Repeated pauses in U.S. attacks fuel uncertainty as negotiations falter and fighting reignites.

For months, President Donald Trump has followed a familiar pattern in the conflict with Iran: announcing pauses in military strikes, often citing diplomatic breakthroughs, only for hostilities to resume within days. This cycle has defined the five-month confrontation, unsettling global markets and driving up oil prices.

On Saturday, Trump declared that planned strikes would be halted to allow talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing tensions. It was the latest in a string of announcements where threats of massive attacks were suddenly withdrawn. Yet history suggests such pauses rarely hold. Previous ceasefires have collapsed quickly, leading to renewed clashes and retaliatory strikes.

In March, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire just hours before a deadline he had set for Tehran to surrender or face devastating attacks. That truce ended with U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers in May. Later, he extended the ceasefire indefinitely, citing mediator requests, but fighting resumed within weeks. Similar reversals followed in late May, when negotiations faltered, and in June, when Trump threatened to seize Iran’s oil industry before abruptly calling off strikes after claiming progress in talks.

At one point, Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, promising a permanent end to hostilities and reopening of the strait. But he left the deal conditional, warning that if talks failed, “we’ll go back to shooting at them.” Soon after, Iranian attacks on commercial ships prompted fresh U.S. strikes, reigniting the cycle.

Even during NATO meetings abroad, Trump has alternated between threats of escalation and sudden cancellations, often citing allies’ appeals or supposed breakthroughs. Each pause has been followed by renewed violence, including missile and drone attacks by Iran across the Middle East and U.S. bombardments of military and commercial sites.

Iranian officials remain sceptical of Trump’s announcements, dismissing them as neither surprising nor effective. The defence minister recently stated that Iran remains alert and prepared despite Trump’s shifting stance.

The repeated halts and resumptions of strikes underscore the unpredictability of U.S. policy in the region. While Trump frames these pauses as opportunities for peace, the reality has been a relentless cycle of threats, negotiations, and renewed fighting, leaving both regional actors and global observers bracing for the next turn in the conflict.